The Martingale is the most popular and worldwide most played roulette strategy.
Martingale Roulette is based on the attempt to compensate a potentially loss from a previous round by doubling the betting stakes in the following round. Like all other roulette strategies the martingale is ment to realize long term profits.
Like other strategies (e.g. d' Alamberts) Martingale is based on probabilistic considerations, and will be applied in most cases by playing the Simple Chances. The theory behind the Martingale strategy is easily explained:
Assuming there is 1 piece played on Red. Now we lose and we will double the stake, If we have also loss in the following round, we have to double again to 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048 and so on.
If we have a hit after the fourth spin then the player has set 1, 2, 4, 8 = 15 pieces, but after the win event there are 16 pieces. By doubling the stakes after each loss all losses become compensated at once. After the winning event our player will start with his initial stake again.
Winning probabilities according to the logic of the Martingale roulette (zero not included):
1st Throw = 50%
2nd Throw = 50% + (first throw * 50%) = 75%
3rd Throw = 50% + (first throw * 50%) + (2nd throw * 50%) = 87.5%
4th Throw = 50% + (first throw * 50%) + (2nd throw * 50%) + (3rd throw * 50%) = 93.75%
Each throw is a 50 percent (to be exact one 47.3%) chance, regardless of the outcome of the previous spin.
But the fact that the loss probability is halved on every spin, means also that we will never achieve a 100 percent probability. The probability only tends to 100, but will never reached. Even then, however, we have a residual risk of 1% which corresponds to 1 in 100 cases. This simply means that in 1 case of 100 one series will have 7 or more times the same color.
Let's see, which consequences it has for our game:
1 piece of red loses
2 pieces of red loses
4 pieces of red loses
8 pieces of red loses
16 pieces of red loses
32 pieces of red loses
64 pieces of red loses
The total loss after seven rounds is now 1 +2 +4 +8 +16 +32 +64 = 127 pieces. If we now assume that this event occurs statistically in 1 out of 100 cases, the dilemma becomes clear. Our initial stake was 1 piece. Even if we complete our serieses with profit in all other 99 cases. The loss of one single series is more expensive than the profits of all other series togehter are. Because the gain is always the amount of the initial stake. 1 * 99. And Zero is not yet priced.